Model monitoring and dynamic model selection in travel time-series forecasting

Candela, Rosa; Michiardi, Pietro; Filippone, Maurizio; Zuluaga, Maria A
ECML-PKDD 2020, The European Conference on Machine Learning and Principles and Practice of Knowledge Discovery in Databases, 14-18 September 2020, Ghent, Belgium (Virtual Conference)

Accurate travel products price forecasting is a highly desired feature that allows customers to take informed decisions about purchases, and companies to build and offer attractive tour packages. Thanks to machine learning (ML), it is now relatively cheap to develop highly accurate statistical models for price time-series forecasting. However, once models are deployed in production, it is their monitoring, maintenance and improvement which carry most of the costs and difficulties over time. We introduce a data-driven framework to continuously monitor and maintain deployed time-series forecasting models' performance, to guarantee stable performance of travel products price forecasting models. Under a supervised learning approach, we predict the errors of time-series forecasting models over time, and use this predicted performance measure to achieve both model monitoring and maintenance. We validate the proposed method on a dataset of 18K time-series from flight and hotel prices collected over two years and on two public benchmarks.

 
 

DOI
Type:
Conférence
City:
Ghent
Date:
2020-09-13
Department:
Data Science
Eurecom Ref:
6211
Copyright:
© Springer. Personal use of this material is permitted. The definitive version of this paper was published in ECML-PKDD 2020, The European Conference on Machine Learning and Principles and Practice of Knowledge Discovery in Databases, 14-18 September 2020, Ghent, Belgium (Virtual Conference) and is available at : http://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-67667-4_31

PERMALINK : https://www.eurecom.fr/publication/6211